Why the right approach for a stable market will destroy you in a chaotic one - and how to know which you're in.
I'm going to tell you about two businesses I worked with in the same year. Both were well-run. Both had solid strategies. One thrived. One nearly went under.
The difference? One matched their strategy to their environment. The other didn't.
This might be the most underrated concept in business strategy, and most people have never heard of it.
The Strategy-Environment Mismatch
There's a phenomenon in business I've seen dozens of times:
Someone reads a case study about how Company X succeeded with Strategy Y. They implement Strategy Y in their own business. It fails.
"Strategy doesn't work," they conclude.
Wrong conclusion.
The real problem: Strategy Y was designed for Environment A. They were operating in Environment B.
It's like bringing a snowplow to the Sahara. The tool isn't broken - it's just completely wrong for the conditions.
Enter TUNA: Understanding Your Environment
TUNA is a framework for characterizing your business environment across four dimensions:
Turbulence - How frequently and intensely is your market changing?
Uncertainty - How predictable are outcomes in your market?
Novelty - How often do genuinely new things appear?
Ambiguity - How clear is the cause-and-effect in your market?
Each dimension exists on a spectrum from low to high. And your strategy needs to match.
Let's Break Down Each Dimension
Turbulence
Low turbulence: Changes are gradual and predictable. Think utilities, funeral services, basic grocery staples.
High turbulence: Rapid, frequent changes. Think tech startups, fashion, social media marketing.
Strategy implication: In low turbulence environments, detailed long-term planning works. In high turbulence, you need flexibility and rapid iteration.
Uncertainty
Low uncertainty: You can reasonably predict outcomes. Historical data is a reliable guide. "If we do X, Y will probably happen."
High uncertainty: Outcomes are hard to predict. What worked last quarter might not work next quarter.
Strategy implication: In low uncertainty, optimize for efficiency. In high uncertainty, optimize for learning and adaptability.
Novelty
Low novelty: Your market operates on well-understood principles. Not much genuinely new happens.
High novelty: New technologies, new competitors, new customer behaviors appear regularly.
Strategy implication: In low novelty environments, expertise and experience are valuable. In high novelty, beginner's mind and experimentation matter more.
Ambiguity
Low ambiguity: Cause and effect are clear. "We raised prices, sales dropped." Makes sense.
High ambiguity: It's hard to know why things happen. Multiple interpretations are valid.
Strategy implication: In low ambiguity, double down on what works. In high ambiguity, run more experiments and stay humble about your conclusions.
The Two Business Story
Remember those two businesses I mentioned?
Business A was a commercial cleaning company. They'd been successful for 20 years with a straightforward strategy: reliable service, competitive pricing, steady growth through referrals.
Their environment was low-TUNA. Stable. Predictable. They knew their market.
Then the pandemic hit. Overnight, their environment became high-TUNA. Uncertainty skyrocketed. Everything was novel. Client needs changed weekly.
They kept trying to execute their old strategy. "We just need to get back to what works." But what worked before was designed for a completely different environment.
By the time they adapted, they'd lost 40% of their contracts.
Business B was an events company. Also hit hard by the pandemic. But they recognized the environment had changed fundamentally.
They immediately shifted to a high-TUNA strategy: Short planning cycles (weeks, not years). Multiple small experiments instead of big bets. Constant customer feedback loops. Willingness to pivot repeatedly.
They emerged smaller but sustainable. And when things stabilized, they kept the adaptive muscles they'd built.
How to Assess Your Environment
Here's a simple assessment. For each dimension, rate your current environment 1-5:
Turbulence (1 = very stable, 5 = constant disruption)
How often do significant changes happen in your market?
How intense are those changes when they occur?
Uncertainty (1 = highly predictable, 5 = completely unpredictable)
How accurately can you predict next year's conditions?
How reliable is historical data for making decisions?
Novelty (1 = nothing new, 5 = constantly new)
How often do genuinely new things appear in your market?
How much of what you're dealing with has no precedent?
Ambiguity (1 = clear cause-effect, 5 = nothing is clear)
How well do you understand why things happen in your market?
How often are you surprised by outcomes?
Score interpretation:
Total 4-8: Low-TUNA environment. Plan carefully and execute consistently.
Total 9-14: Moderate-TUNA environment. Balance planning with flexibility.
Total 15-20: High-TUNA environment. Emphasize speed, learning, and adaptability.
Matching Strategy to Environment
Low-TUNA Strategy: Long-term planning (3-5 years). Detailed execution plans. Optimization and efficiency focus. Expertise-driven decision making. Commitment to chosen course.
High-TUNA Strategy: Short planning cycles (weeks to months). Rapid experimentation. Learning and adaptation focus. Data + intuition decision making. Willingness to pivot quickly.
The mistake I see most often: Businesses in high-TUNA environments trying to execute low-TUNA strategies. They want the certainty of a detailed plan, but the environment won't cooperate.
Your Environment Changes
Here's the tricky part: your environment isn't static.
COVID moved almost every business toward high-TUNA for a while. Some industries have stabilized. Others haven't.
New technology can shift an industry from low-TUNA to high-TUNA overnight (ask any taxi company about Uber).
Economic shifts, new regulations, competitive disruptions - all of these can change your TUNA profile.
The discipline: Reassess regularly. Don't assume your environment is the same as it was last year.
One More Insight
There's something liberating about TUNA analysis.
If you're in a high-TUNA environment and your carefully planned strategy isn't working, it might not be your fault. You might just be using the wrong tool for the conditions.
And if you're in a low-TUNA environment, you don't need to chase every new trend. Consistent execution might be exactly the right approach.
The goal isn't to have the "best" strategy. It's to have the right strategy for your environment.
This is part of a series on strategic frameworks that actually work for small and medium businesses. Next up: How to stop competing and start dominating (Blue Ocean Strategy).
About StratBear: We bring Fortune 500 strategic frameworks to businesses that don't have Fortune 500 budgets. Because everyone deserves access to the tools that actually work.